Insights
Market & Trading Trends
A dashboard-style view of themes I track. High level, updated as regimes shift.
AI / AI Infrastructure
Last updated Feb 2026What I'm watching
Model training spend, hyperscaler capex, and AI-native software adoption in vertical workflows.
Why it matters
AI infrastructure is the pick-and-shovel layer that compounds across multiple cycles.
Key indicators
- Cloud capex guidance
- GPU supply lead times
- Enterprise AI pilot conversion rates
Risks
- Overbuild of capacity
- Compression in inference margins
Defense / Military Tech
Last updated Feb 2026What I'm watching
Autonomy, ISR spend, and multi-year procurement visibility.
Why it matters
Geopolitical realignment is reshaping budgets and supplier moats.
Key indicators
- Order backlog growth
- Program wins
- Export approvals
Risks
- Program delays
- Budget resets
Energy Transition / Grid / Compute Power
Last updated Feb 2026What I'm watching
Grid bottlenecks, energy storage deployment, and power pricing for data centers.
Why it matters
Compute demand is now power-constrained, creating new scarcity dynamics.
Key indicators
- Interconnection queue data
- Power purchase agreements
- Battery cost curves
Risks
- Regulatory friction
- Commodity volatility
Cybersecurity / Data
Last updated Feb 2026What I'm watching
Identity security, cloud posture management, and zero-trust adoption.
Why it matters
Security budgets remain resilient as digital risk rises.
Key indicators
- Net retention rates
- Ransomware incident data
- Platform consolidation
Risks
- Vendor sprawl
- Pricing pressure
Macro Signals
Last updated Feb 2026What I'm watching
Rates, liquidity conditions, and global risk appetite.
Why it matters
Macro dictates the regime for positioning and risk control.
Key indicators
- Real rates
- Liquidity metrics
- Credit spreads
Risks
- Policy surprises
- Liquidity shocks
Method
Each trend is backed by a watchlist of indicators, a live risk register, and scheduled reviews. If a signal flips, it's logged and reweighted — not ignored.